Simulating Societal Change: Counterfactual Modelling for Social and Policy Inquiry

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Springer, Jan 16, 2019 - Social Science - 245 pages
This book presents a method for creating a working model of society, using data systems and simulation techniques, that can be used for testing propositions of scientific and policy nature. The model is based on the example of New Zealand, but will be applicable to other countries. It is expected that collaborators in other countries can emulate this example with their data systems for teaching and policy purposes, producing a cross-national "collaboratory". This enterprise will evolve with, and to a degree independently of, the book itself, with a supporting website as well as teaching and scientific initiatives. Readers of this text will, for the first time, have a simulation-based working model of society that can be interrogated for policy and substantive purposes. This book will appeal to researchers and professionals from various disciplines working within the social sciences, particularly on matters of demography and public policy.
 

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Contents

Introduction
1
Conceptual and Analytical Foundations
10
SociaLab A Dynamic Microsimulation Model
21
Tracking Societal Change Its Major Components
33
Data Preparation
41
Statistical Analysis
67
Simulation
81
The Seven Ages A Framework for Social and Policy Issues
96
Tracking Societal Change Descriptive Results
113
What If? Counterfactual Modelling with SociaLab
128
Conclusion
153
Appendix
11-1
Copyright

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About the author (2019)

Peter Davis is Honorary Professor in the Department of Statistics and Emeritus Professor in Population Health and Social Science, at the University of Auckland. He was founding director of the COMPASS (Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences) Research Centre and recently completed a two-year James Cook Fellowship funded by the Royal Society of New Zealand. He has also held the position of Senior Editor (Health Policy) at Social Science and Medicine.

Roy Lay-Yee is Senior Research Fellow at the COMPASS Research Centre, University of Auckland, New Zealand. His research interests include health services utilisation, use of official data, social simulation, ageing, social determinants and inequalities, and social connectedness.
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