Simulating Societal Change: Counterfactual Modelling for Social and Policy Inquiry
This book presents a method for creating a working model of society, using data systems and simulation techniques, that can be used for testing propositions of scientific and policy nature. The model is based on the example of New Zealand, but will be applicable to other countries. It is expected that collaborators in other countries can emulate this example with their data systems for teaching and policy purposes, producing a cross-national "collaboratory". This enterprise will evolve with, and to a degree independently of, the book itself, with a supporting website as well as teaching and scientific initiatives. Readers of this text will, for the first time, have a simulation-based working model of society that can be interrogated for policy and substantive purposes. This book will appeal to researchers and professionals from various disciplines working within the social sciences, particularly on matters of demography and public policy.
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5-yearly adults and children analysis approach Asian Available baby boomer base simulation birth causal census data census pair cohort Computational Social Sciences computer model conceptual Consumer Price Index course data set DataLab demographic change dependent children economic employment estimates ethnicity EUROMOD eurother factors Female Male Female framework gender h_income household income housing tenure impact individuals Journal Lay-Yee life-course linkage linked living with dependent Logistic regression main module Male Female Male Māori microdata microsimulation model missing data NZ Longitudinal Census NZLC official statistics outcomes Pacific partnership patterns period personal income population dynamics potential predictive predictors prev age recent immigrants Scenario scenario testing Simulating Societal Change simulation model social and demographic social determinants social policy social simulation SociaLab sociology starting sample statistical model Statistics New Zealand structure structure and agency synthetic sample Table tion trajectories transition trends variables welfare receipt Zealand society