4

or

Forecasts," predictions of weather for a month or a year in ad

vance.

the the moon and the planets and experimented with electricity and magne tism, but thus far we have found nothing to lead us to believe that there is a possibility at the present time of making even a useful, not to say accurate, forecast of the weather for a period much above forty-eight hours.

Previous to 1870 few people in the United States conceded the possibility of foreseeing the weather, even twenty-four hours in advance, with any greater certainty than that attained by the wisdom of the "oldest I am aware that there are men in this inhabitant," but during that year the country, like the Rev. Earl R. Hicks, public was awakened to the fact that of St. Louis, Forster, of St. Joe, Dethe United States Government had es- Voe, and others, who claim to be able tablished a department for this very to make accurate predictions of the purpose, and began dimly to compre- weather for a year in advance of their hend that it was not only possible to fulfillment, but so far as we are able predict the weather with a certain de- to learn, their theories, which are usualgree of accuracy, but that it could be ly based upon the very questionable done with very great benefit to the influence of planetary and stellar commercial and agricultural interests bodies, have not commended themof the country. Since that time fa- selves to a single reputable scientist. miliarity with daily accounts of the In this connection I am constrained to verification of the prediction of say that a foreknowledge of the storms, cold waves, etc., has resulted weather for a month or a year in adin the public thought far outstripping the actual advance of the science in this respect, and the country now demands a forecast for a season or a year in advance, where it once con- deceive the public for his own gain. sidered it a wonderful achievement to predict the weather for twenty-four hours.

vance is not in possession of any living man at the present time, and any man who lays claim to such knowledge is simply deceiving or attempting to

Obtaining Forecasts,

The method employed by the Weather Bureau in forecasting the weather depends upon the fact that electricity travels faster than the winds. If it were not for the electric telegraph the Weather Bureau as at present organized could not exist, for the forecaster must not only have before him the conditions as shown by his own instruments, but a broad view of the weather conditions over a large territory-the larger the better. We have under the control of the United States Weather Bureau about one hundred and eighty weather observatories in various portions of the United States and the West Indies, and by the courtesy of the governments concerned, daily reports are received from Canada on the north, Mexico on the south, the Azores, and the western coast of Europe, thus covering within

In pressing this demand it is said that after thirty years of observation and experience the Weather Bureau should be able to furnish a fairly accurate forecast for more than one or two days, and in truth it should, but let me say that we have not been negligent nor indifferent to this demand. We have attacked this problem of long-range forecasts from every conceivable standpoint, vigorously and at short range. We have carried our instruments to the highest mountain peaks on the continent; we have taken our lives in our hands and explored the upper atmosphere by means of balloons; we have placed observatorics in kites and sent them up to the dis'tance of a mile in the hope of finding something in the upper strata that would lead to a solution of the problem; we have studied the influence of our field of observation practically

state, from which in turn it is dis tributed to the rural districts.

the whole of the inhabited portions of clusions to a central office in each the North American continent. Each of these observatories is manned by one or more trained observers, and exactly at 7 a. m. and 7 p. m. of each day an observation of the weather is made. This observation consists of a reading of the air pressure, or weight of the atmosphere in his locality, as shown by the barometer; the temperature of the air and the amount of moisture it contains; the direction and velocity of the wind; the clouds, kind and movement, and the rain or snowfall. To this is added as occasion requires special information in regard to rapid changes in the conditions, local thunderstorms, frosts, etc. This observation is

immediately tele

This is in brief an outline of the method employed by the Weather Bureau in the preparation of the forecasts of the weather, and it is the only rational method known. The forecasts are found to be correct about eightyfive times out of one hundred, even when verified under the strictest rules. We are free to admit that we make failures, and also free to admit that we have but an imperfect knowledge of the complex problems of atmos pheric phenomena. The operation of the laws which result in development of storms or control their apparently erratic movements is not well undergraphed to the central offices at stood. Neither do we yet fully under Washington and to other forecast stand or appreciate all the details of centers and offices authorized to reso common a phenomenon as rainfall. ceive them. As soon as the reports Enough has been accomplished, howcome from the wires they are charted ever, in the practical work of forecaston a blank map prepared for the pur- ing the weather to justify us in the pose, and when they are all in, which statement that if the farmer could is usually about an hour after the ob- obtain each morning information of servation has been taken, the fore the probable weather for the succeedcaster has before him a birds-eye viewing twenty-four or thirty-six hours, it of the weather conditions over a large could be used to advantage in many portion of the western hemisphere. If there is a storm developing, like the great storm which destroyed Galveston, it is shown on this chart, and from his experience and knowledge he is able to determine its general character, the direction and rate of its movement, and it is therefore a simple problem in mathematics to calculate about when it will reach a certain point. In the same manner the trained weather forecaster is able to predict the cold waves which usually have their origin in the British Northwest and sweep southeastward over the western states.

When the forecaster has determined what in his judgment the weather will be in each state during the following thirty-six hours, based upon the conditions shown by the charted observa tions and his experience and study of similar types, he telegraphs his con

ways.

Rural Delivery.

It has long been a problem how to reach the farmer, as he usually lives some distance from the telegraph, upon which we must mainly rely to distribute our forecasts, but since the telephone has begun to extend its network of wires to the rural districts, and the Rural Free Delivery mail service has been put into operation, we are beginning to be able to give the farmer the same benefit of the weather forecasts now enjoyed by the residents of our large centers of population.

The method of distributing the forecasts to the rural districts by the Rural Free Delivery service is, briefly. stated, as follows:

The forecast for the state is telegraphed to the postmaster from whose

those
their farms.

DISCUSSION.

office the different rural routes radi- and with the same financial gain to ate. The postmaster is supplied with themselves as is now being done by a rubber stamp duplicating apparatus, who handle the products of by which he is enabled to quickly duplicate, on cards furnished for the purpose, sufficient copies of the forecast to supply the patrons of the various routes. These cards are taken by the carriers and delivered to the farmers along their respective routes, so that by noon or shortly after each farmer has in his hands an official forecast of the weather to be expected during the next twenty-four or thirty six hours.

The drawback to this system lies in the fact that in many instances the carrier is obliged to leave before the postmaster can be reached with the forecasts and as the value of the information depends upon the promptness with which it is distributed, it is practically impossible to make use of the rural service where the carrier leaves much before 10 a. m.

Prof. Henry-I would like to ask Prof. Wilson if the springs which all over this region have dried up more or less, and the streams which have become more or less dry,-if we may expect a recurrence of moisture sufficient to start them up again; if this dryness is but a temporary matter.

Prof. Wilson-Prof. Henry's question involves a good deal. We can only guess the future by our records of the past. From what records we have in this country, I am inclined to the opinion that we will have an increased rainfall in the next few years, because.it seems to me that we have reached the minimum point, but there has been a great deal of tiling, and artificial drainage has been SO exextensively employed, that it is possible that the springs and streams of this kind, even in the case of an increased rainfall, may never reach the point that they once had.

The telephone service is much more satisfactory and has the advantage of being instantaneous. The forecasts will be telegraphed to the managers of rural telephone companies, free of charge, provided the information will be transmitted to the farmers daily or Prof. Henry-You practically made furnished when called for. A number the statement, or led to the inference of telephone companies in the state that our climate has not changed. You have already inaugurated this service have based that upon the fact that we for the benefit of their patrons, and it have had as many inches of rainfall has been the means of extending their in a given period as previously. It lines in several instances. Farmers does not seem to me that such an have put in telephones for the special answer satisfies us that the climate purpose of obtaining the forecasts of has not changed. It seems to me that the weather, and consider it a good we can have as many inches of raininvestment. Heretofore, the shipper fall in a given period and yet have of perishable goods has been most the climate change. benefited by the weather service, not mean climate. while the producer has practically farmers in Dodge and Columbia been left to take the weather as it comes, but if the farmers of Wisconsin will make an effort to get into closer touch with the weather service -and in this I assure them they will be met more than half way-there is no reason why they cannot utilize the weather forecasts to the same extent

Rainfall does.
Formerly the

counties discussed whether they couid grow corn; now that same question is being discussed in Forest and Marathon counties. I believe the climate has changed in the popular meaning.

Mr. Reitbrock-I might bring my own experience upon this very point, which has extended over a number

of years.

Prof. Wilson-I really have not gone into that question. Prof. Henry's remarks are undoubtedly true that an average rainfall at opportune times is worth double the amount at inopportune times, but whether there is a tendency to a less useful rainfall, I would

Fifty years ago, perhaps and frequency of the showers. A few fifty-five years ago, we considered inches of moisture in the summer, Waterford, which is a point twenty- | properly distributed, may raise a crop, five miles south of Milwaukee, as be where twice the amount in one or ing at the northern limit of the corn two beating storms may leave us with belt. I know men still living who no crop. Do you have any evidence were positive that corn never would that our rainstorms are less useful succeed in the state of Wisconsin in than in the early times as to times of the latitude lying north of Waterford. distribution? Nevertheless I have known corn to succeed on the Penokee range, that is, on the Lake Superior slope of the Penokee range of mountains. I agree with Mr. Wright that there has been a climatic change going on in this way. That territory that I have been familiar with for twenty-five not say. I know we have not had as years was all forest for one hundred great an annual rainfall in the last miles in extent, east and west, and few years as we did in the sixties and the sun could not get down to the seventies, but it does not argue anyground to melt the ice and snow as thing for the future. rapidly as it can now, when it is interspersed with considerable areas of bare ground, that is to say, ground denuded of the forest. The snow goes off early in the spring, and my observation is that it warms up more rapidly in the southern part of the state since the timber has been all cut off on certain areas. I really be lieve in the matter of a slight change going on in the climate, irrespective of the precipitation.

Prof. Wilson-My remarks were directed more particularly to those who have been trying to make us believe that the state was drying up. These local changes of climate are undoubtedly going on. The influence of the forest is great, especially in the matter of frost and even to a certain extent in the matter of annual temperature. But as far as its influence upon the annual amount of rainfall is concerned, I do not believe that it has any influence. I directed my remarks to that point more particularly than to the local changes which are shown by the different. vegetations.

Supt. McKerrow-We would like to go into this matter deeper, but our time is limited.

Mr. Scott-While the rainfall may be the same, is it not a fact, Professor, that the cropping out of the humus in our long-cultivated fields creates a greater evaporation and we suffer more from droughts than we did twenty years ago?

Prof. Wilson-Ask Prof. Henry that question.

Mr. Nicolai-I would like to ask this question in regard to the temperature. You have kept the temperature the same as you have the amount of rainfall and the two will virtually settle the climate question. Now, has the temperature changed much within the last ten years?

Prof. Wilson-I have not gone into that question thoroughly enough to make a positive answer. I do not think that our records are sufficiently refined to show any change. If there is a change (and I do not say there is not) it is not to be found upon our records.

Prof. Henry-The value of rainfall Supt. McKerrow-Before the report does not depend upon the mere ques- of the committees and the reading of tion of total inches in twelve months. the prize list, I had intended to call It depends upon seasonal distribution upon some gentlemen in the room,

several outside local men, and pected to call on

men and

several, school as a delegate. I will call upon the first I ex- Attorney General Hicks, who is also was Mr. Hughes, a farmer.

whom I find is attending the cooking

REMARKS BY ATTORNEY GENERAL HICKS.

always running over before I have been very long in these Institutes.

I have an idea that the chairman felt himself in about the position of the clerk of the Brown Palace Hotel in the city of Denver, when a rather forbidding old fellow came in just at the edge of the evening and walked up to the desk and asked the clerk for a match to light his pipe. The clerk very courteously passed out the matches, and the man lighted his pipe and went on his way. The next night he came again and asked for another match to light his pipe, and the clerk again courteously passed out the matches. This was repeated for several days until one night there was a congestion of traffic at the desk and the clerk was irritated. He replied to the request that he did not have any matches. The fellow straightened up in his offended dignity and said: "Perhaps you don't know who I am." "Well, now," the clerk thought, "I venture this fellow is an old prospector from the mountains and I have offended him." "Well, no, I don't know who you are. Kindly tell us who you are."

I feel that my namesake has been sufficiently and successfully and perhaps rightly discredited. Before this audience it would be unfair "Well, I am the man that comes to set out with such a tremendous here every day to get a match to light handicap, I, therefore, disclaim any re- | my pipe." lationship to this celebrated weather That is all I am here for. I have prophet by the name of Hicks. While come to absorb something from this I disclaim any relationship to the cel- Institute. ebrated Hicks, perhaps I ought to be introduced to this audience, to whom I am a comparative stranger. Still, I have chased up Farmers' Institutes it is your own fault. for many years and have absorbed here wih the right disposition, with much valuable information. I am here the right purpose of heart, you will go now with my small dish to catch away loaded full of suggestions. Dr what I can, and I confess that it is not feel that these men are "book

My countrymen, this is your Institute. Your taxes pay for it. Do you get anything out of it? If you do not, If you come