Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Scenarios: Findings of the Scenarios Working GroupStephen R. Carpenter Scenarios are an invaluable tool for analyzing complex systems and understanding possible outcomes. This second volume of the MA series explores the implications of four different approaches for managing ecosystem services in the face of growing human demand for them: The Global Orchestration approach, in which we emphasize equity, economic growth, and public goods, reacting to ecosystem problems when they reach critical stages. Order from Strength, which emphasizes security and economic growth. Adapting Mosaic, which emphasizes proactive management of ecosystems, local adaptation, and flexible governance. TechnoGarden, a globalized approach with an emphasis on green technology and a proactive approach to managing ecosystems. The Scenarios volume will help decision-makers and managers identify development paths that better maintain the resilience of ecosystems, and can reduce the risk of damage to human well-being and the environment. |
Contents
Comparing Alternate Futures of Ecosystem Services and Human Wellbeing | 7 |
Toward Future Assessments of Ecosystem Services | 15 |
MA Conceptual Framework | 21 |
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Adapting Mosaic agricultural Alcamo approach aquaculture areas Asia assessment biodiversity biomass biomes changes in ecosystem Chapter climate change coastal crop cultural decision-makers decline degradation diseases diversity drivers dynamics ecological economic growth Ecopath ecosys ecosystem change ecosystem management ecosystem services effects emissions energy Environment environmental eutrophication example factors feedbacks fertility fish fisheries focus forest four scenarios freshwater future Global Orchestration global scenarios greenhouse gas habitat habitat loss human well-being impacts important improve increase interactions invasive species land cover land use change levels loss MA scenarios ment Millennium Ecosystem Assessment models narios nations nitrogen nutrient OECD Order from Strength policies pollution poorer countries population potential problems processes production projections quantitative rates reduced regions Research result risk scales social soil spatial species storylines sub-Saharan Africa sustainable TechnoGarden terrestrial tion trade trade-offs trends tropical uncertainty vulnerability wetlands