great progress, and it is understood that government cannot be properly conducted without a knowledge of the past, that political facts, susceptible of numeration, are recorded without a view to immediate practical application. The numerical facts preserved from antiquity chiefly relate to the national revenue or treasure, the numbers of the fighting men, and the account of the taxable property, all of which were determined for practical purposes. It may be laid down as a practical rule, subject to no exception, that all statements of large numbers, not founded, directly or indirectly, upon actual enumeration, are unworthy of credit. Where actual enumeration of the entire number is too troublesome or too tedious a process to be employed, a computation resting upon some more limited enumeration may be relied upon as an approximation to the truth. For example, if an entire population cannot be counted, a correct enumeration of the houses, combined with an estimate of the average number of inmates of each house, will afford an authentic, though inferior, substitute. But a mere conjecture of numbers, unsupported by any fixed datum of calculation, is wholly uncertain. (")

(44) The uncertainty of numerical accounts, not founded upon actual enumeration, but derived from a loose estimate or a general impression, is strikingly shown in the writings of the historians of the Spanish conquest of Mexico. All these accounts are taken from eye-witnesses and contemporaries; and yet they are, for the most part, wholly undeserving of credit; and differ widely from each other.

The number of human victims annually sacrificed in Mexico is estimated by some writers as 50,000; by none lower than 20,000.-Prescott, Hist. of the Conquest of Mexico, vol. i. p. 72. Both numbers are utterly incredible. In his first great battle with the Indians, Cortes is said to have lost two Spaniards; but the number of Indians slain varies, in different writers, from one to thirty thousand.-Ib. p. 260. The population of the town of Cempoalla is estimated by Las Casas at 20,000 or 30,000: Torquemada hesitates between 20,000, 50,000, and 150,000.-16. p. 311. The numbers of Tlascalan enemies are variously estimated at 30,000, 40,000, and 80,000.-Ib. p. 387.

The population of the Mexican capital, at the time of the conquest, is variously stated. 'Nothing (says Mr. Prescott, vol. ii. p. 104) is more uncertain than estimates of numbers among barbarous communities, who necessarily live in a more confused and promiscuous manner than civilized, and among whom no regular system is adopted for ascertaining the population.'

The discrepancies in the account of the loss suffered by the Spaniards and their Indian allies, on the disastrous night when they retreated from

The rarity of statistical enumeration until modern times may be best illustrated by the history of censuses of the population. The earliest census of which we have any record is that of King David; who caused the fighting men of his dominions to be enumerated.() For Athens there is the nearly complete census taken by Demetrius Phalereus; and for Rome there are various imperfect accounts for purposes of taxation, founded, however, on actual enumeration. There are also several incidental statements of the population of particular towns in antiquity, which appear to be generally conjectural, and therefore not trustworthy. The same absence of authentic information as to numbers of population continues through the middle age, and even to a comparatively recent date.(") For the most part, the tediousness of counting an entire population per capita, has induced a resort to the more compendious methods of numeration afforded by the art of arithmetic. Thus, the total number of a population may

the capital, are collected by Mr. Prescott.-Ib. p. 345. The number of Mexicans who left the capital after it had been taken by the Spaniards is estimated at various numbers, from 30,000 to 70,000 (vol. iii. p. 186); the estimates of those who perished during the siege vary from 120,000 to 240,000.-Пb. p. 187. It will be safer (says Mr. Prescott, after reviewing these conjectural computations) to dispense with arithmetic, where the data are too loose and slippery to afford a foot-hold for getting at truth.'— Ibid.

As to the numerical inaccuracies of the ancients, see Hume's Essay on the Populousness of Ancient Nations.

It is stated that a register was kept of all the births and deaths in the kingdom of Peru, and that exact returns of the population were made every year to the government, by means of quipus, or knotted cords, by which arithmetical ideas were signified. (Prescott's History of the Conquest of Peru, vol. i. p. 50, 110.) This enumeration was made for a practical purpose: inasmuch as the labour of a large part of the people was put in motion by the government.

Actual enumeration of large numbers is much rarer, even at the present day, than is commonly believed. It is stated on good authority, that the accounts of the numbers of books in the public libraries of the Continent are generally exaggerated; and that the library of the British Museum is the only large library in which the volumes have been actually counted.

(45) With respect to the Jewish census, see Num. iii. 40-51; and as to the advantages of a complete enumeration of the people, Michaelis' Com. on the Laws of Moses, art. 172. As to David's census, 2 Sam. xxiv. 9; Joseph. Ant. vii. 13.

(46) Upon the uncertainty of modern accounts of population, see Voltaire, Essai sur les Maurs, app. remarque xix.

be approximately determined from the number of heads of families, or of fighting men, or of houses and hearths, or from the annual births or deaths, by assuming a certain ratio to serve as the basis of computation. Other indirect means of determining the

numbers of a body of men may be adopted; such, for example, as a measurement of the area upon which a given number may stand, which was the rude process adopted by Xerxes for counting his vast host, before his invasion of Greece. (7) The Oriental countries, both in ancient and modern times, have been destitute of authentic accounts of their population. (18)

The importance of accurate statistical information, as the basis of historical description, as well as of political reasoning, both speculative and practical, cannot be too much insisted on. The attention of modern governments has been directed to the subject, and it has been understood that a constant registration of social and political facts ought to be kept up, without any immediate practical object; like the observations of the heavenly bodies, temperature, weather, tides, and other natural phenomena, made by the physical philosopher. Facts, unimportant in themselves, become important as units comprised in a complete enumeration; and results are thus obtained, to which mere conjecture, or the loose and vague impressions derived from a partial observation, could not have led. This process is now carried

on,

(47) Herod. vii. 60. The same method of counting is said by Quintus Curtius to have been adopted by Darius before the battle of Issus; iii. 2. Alluded to by Seneca, De Brev. Vitæ, c. 16 :- Quum per magna camporum spatia porrigeret exercitum, nec numerum ejus, sed mensuram comprehenderet Persarum rex insolentissimus, lacrimas profudit,' &c.

(48) Comme dans les pays orientaux, l'on n'a point de listes des nés et des morts, il est fort difficile d'apprendre quelque chose de positif de la population des villes. Si l'on veut s'en informer chez les habitans, ils parlent toujours de quelques centaines de milliers; mais en général on trouvera que la population n'est à beaucoup près pas si considérable qu'on le pense communément en Europe, d'après de pareilles informations.'Niebuhr, Voyage en Arabie, tom. ii. p. 179.

Tous les calculs de population en Turquie sont arbitraires; parce qu'on n'y tient point de registres de naissances, de morts, ou de mariages. Les musulmans ont même des préjugés superstitieux contre les dénombrements. Les seuls chrétiens pourraient être recensés au moyen des billets de leur capitation.-Volney, Voyage en Egypte et en Syrie, tom. i. p. 192.

with more or less completeness, by all civilized governments, and the collection of statistical information, not merely for practical, but for scientific purposes, is recognised as a legitimate object of public policy. There are now statistical departments in all the principal states of Europe.

Statistical information differs from the observation of positive politics, in being less abstract. Place and time, and the numerical relations of persons, though disregarded in positive politics, are essential elements in statistics. (9) On the other hand, statistical observation is more abstract, and less full, than the observation of the historian. It disregards the identity of the persons or objects with which it deals, and considers them only as the subjects of numeration. In looking at a statistical table, all we know is, that it represents a certain number of homogeneous units; men, or pounds sterling, or bags of cotton, or acres of land, at a certain time, and within certain limits of space; it takes no account of the distinctive peculiarities of each unit. The historian, however, as such, identifies everything, and describes all the persons of his drama with their individual characteristics and conduct. Except when he mentions statistical facts, he knows of no units considered merely as making up a numerical whole. The men whom he describes are living and acting men; not mere figures in an arithmetical table.(5)

§ 11 The remarks which have been made with respect to the scientific importance of statistical observation, apply still more strongly to history. In proportion as contemporary events

(49) Mr. Fletcher, in his work On the Moral Statistics of England and Wales, p. 2, gives the following characteristic of statistical data:-ʻ All the first figures of such records as are now adduced profess to register exhaustively certain definitely described circumstances, as those attaching to a stated number or class of individuals, at a specified time, in a place with limits accurately described; and all the value of the results is involved in the character of the first observation never being obscured by any subsequent operations, as by averages so crude as to conceal all distinctiveness of character; or by applying an ascertained rate of progress in one set of elements to another set, or by the comparison of

results between which no parity really exists.'

(50) On the empirical method of treating medicine, by means of what is called medical statistics, see Comte, Cours de Phil. Pos. tom. iii. p. 418.

are in each country recorded with fidelity, and combined into a harmonious narrative, by accurate, impartial, and intelligent writers, will materials be accumulated for a sound political philosophy, and a judicious political practice. Every community which lives together under a government, however rude and unstable, ¦ must (as we have already seen) have a history. It must possess a variable and continuous series of public acts, common to itself, and differing from those of any other community. The history of a savage tribe would, however, if it were recorded, contain little that was instructive, except in the way of caution. It would merely be a succession of acts of rapine, treachery, and cruelty— of marauding expeditions, without military skill or discipline, and of improvident debauchery alternating with famine the whole unredeemed by any higher mental qualities than dexterous cunning, and passive endurance of pain. (") Such communities, however, being ignorant of the arts of civilized life, neither possess the power of making a record of their history, nor feel the want of such a monument of the past. 'In nations (says Dr. Johnson) 'where there is hardly the use of letters, what is once out of sight is lost for ever. They think but little; and of their few thoughts, none are wasted on the past, in which they are neither interested by fear nor hope. Their only registers are stated observances and practical representations. For this reason, an age of ignorance is an age of ceremony. Pageants and processions, and commemorations, gradually shrink away, as better methods come into use of recording events, and preserving

6

(51) That the observation of social facts in the infancy of society is of little use to a civilized community, is remarked by Comte, Cours de Phil. Pos. tom. iv. p. 227. Volney, however, remarks, that different epochs may be distinguished in the history even of savage tribes, where their successive states have been registered by civilized neighbours. (View of the U. S. of America, p. 430; Engl. trans.) The same observation is made by Hugh Murray (Enquiries, p. 330): Though we have accounts of the present condition of a variety of savage nations, yet we have nothing which can be called a history-nothing which exhibits them in a state of progress. The continued intercourse of Europeans with these rude tribes may in time, perhaps, supply the deficiency.' Volney (ib. p. 469) justly points out the importance of understanding savage nature; but this knowledge is not, properly speaking, historical: it resembles natural history rather than history.